Good Judgement

With much of the country already locked down, and the other half seemingly not far away from a similar fate, the government has decided to expand the Job Support Scheme.

From 1 November, businesses across the UK that are required to close their premises due to coronavirus restrictions will be paid two thirds of each employees’ salary (or 67%), up to a maximum of £2,100 a month. Employers won’t need to contribute towards wages, but they will need to cover national insurance and pension contributions. 

Over the coming months, the government will be under pressure to pull out all the stops to limit business failure, and we will be making the economic case for why a lot of this will be necessary.

In normal times, business failure is the sign of a healthy, dynamic economy. Of course, business failure is always and everywhere a personal tragedy for those involved in the failure, but the lessons learned and the reallocation of resources to more efficient uses is what makes us richer. This is why all entrepreneurs are heroic: part of a multi-generational project that has been central to lifting billions out of absolute poverty.

But these aren't normal times. As Sam Dumitiru and Sam Bowman argued early on: "If a business was viable before the shutdown, and would have been viable without it, it’s a loss to society and the economy if the shutdown drives them to a bankruptcy they would have otherwise avoided." Clearly there is a limit to what can and should be be saved, but ignore the siren call of liquidationists, whose (sometimes understandable) cynicism of what government can do, is getting the better of them.

As difficult as things are for entrepreneurs right now, this too shall pass. A vaccine isn’t as far away as many seem to realise. For example, superforecasters (who, despite a lot of articles to the contrary, should be listened to) at the Good Judgement project think the odds are very high that by early to mid-2021 there will be both a vaccine and enough doses to inoculate 25 million people.

A vaccine isn’t the only option for avoiding future future lockdowns – just look at countries with highly-functioning track and trace systems – but it’s reason enough to fill your glass half full.

Do you remember?
In case it slipped your mind, the UK is leaving the EU single market and customs union at the end of this year. The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has asked me to let you know about some live sessions they’ve put together to help you check the new rules and understand the actions to take.
 
See the full schedule and sign up for live sessions here. The live sessions will take place at the following times, and will be available to watch again:    

Monday calling
On Monday, we’ll be releasing our annual Female Founders Forum report in partnership with Barclays. As regular readers will know, this is one of our biggest projects and past reports have had a significant influence on policy.

This report looks at the impact of the pandemic on female-led businesses and the amazing resilience of their founders. Any journalists who want to see an embargoed copy should drop me an email. And for anyone who wants a copy when it launches, just drop Jess an email to get it first thing on Monday morning.